As Hungary enters a post-Orbán political era, Bosnia and Herzegovina is being urged to move quickly—or risk falling behind.
At a panel hosted by the Center for Geopolitical Studies (GEOPOL), analysts and former diplomats warned that Sarajevo must abandon its reactive posture and engage early with Budapest’s incoming leadership. The discussion, titled “Bosnia and Herzegovina and Hungary in the Post-Orbán Era,” framed the moment less as a rupture and more as a strategic opening.
Ovaj članak dostupan je i na bosanskom jeziku
Prof. Sead Turčalo, Dean of the Faculty of Political Science in Sarajevo, described Hungary’s political shift not as a dramatic ideological break, but as a recalibration within the same broad camp.
“This wasn’t a liberal revolution,” he said, referring to the rise of Peter Magyar following the decline of Viktor Orbán. “What we’re seeing is a conservative normalization—Magyar comes from within those very circles.”
From Passive Observer to Active Player
For Turčalo, the real issue lies closer to home. Bosnia and Herzegovina, he argued, failed to counter the parallel diplomatic channels cultivated between Budapest and Republika Srpska during Orbán’s tenure—while simultaneously viewing Hungary primarily through the lens of EU integration.
“That was a strategic blind spot,” he noted. “We now have a narrow window to reposition ourselves.”
His message was direct: Sarajevo must establish contact with Hungary’s new government even before it is formally in place. Delay, he warned, could leave the country once again reacting rather than shaping events.
Admir Lisica, director of GEOPOL, struck a similar tone—arguing that future relations will depend less on Budapest and more on Bosnia and Herzegovina’s own initiative.
“The key is to set the agenda, not chase it,” he said, outlining potential avenues of cooperation ranging from academia and education to media and political networks. GEOPOL, he added, has already drafted a preliminary framework for engagement.
At the top of that list is a contentious demand: the closure of the Hungarian intelligence outpost in Banja Luka, which panelists described as a legacy instrument of Orbán-era ties with Milorad Dodik.
“Hungary doesn’t have to be an adversary,” Lisica said. “But whether it becomes a partner depends on us.”
Rethinking Power—and Perception
Prof. Emir Hadžikadunić, a former diplomat, broadened the lens. Bosnia and Herzegovina, he argued, still struggles to act as a subject in international relations—too often cast instead as an object shaped by others.
Part of that, he suggested, stems from internal political constraints. But part also reflects a deeper mindset—an expectation of external protection that limits strategic autonomy.
He framed Hungary’s political transition as carrying wider geopolitical implications, particularly for transatlantic relations.
“This could mark a significant setback for American interventionism,” he said, pointing to what he described as a failed attempt to influence electoral dynamics in Europe. “Hungarians have shown they are not easily swayed—even by the administration of Donald Trump.”
At the same time, Hadžikadunić pointed to pragmatic pathways forward. Hungary’s emerging political actors, including the Tisza movement, occupy ideological terrain familiar to several Bosnian parties aligned with the European People’s Party—opening the door for structured political engagement.
Where Diplomacy Actually Happens
For Fuad Đidić, the shift runs deeper than electoral outcomes. Modern diplomacy, he argued, is no longer anchored solely in ministries and embassies—but increasingly shaped in think tanks and ideological hubs.
“The real conversations are happening elsewhere,” he said, citing institutions such as the Danube Institute in Budapest and the Valdai Club in Moscow. “That’s where narratives are built—and where influence is exercised.”
Bosnia and Herzegovina, he suggested, has been slow to recognize this shift.
The panel, attended by diplomats, lawmakers, academics, and students, underscored a broader point: Hungary’s political transition may be unfolding in Budapest—but its implications will be felt across the region.
For Bosnia and Herzegovina, the question is no longer whether to engage—but how quickly, and on whose terms.